Memorial Day Weekend Weather: Storms, Heat, and Cooldowns Across the U.S.

As Americans prepare to enjoy the long weekend, the weather will offer a mixed bag of conditions across the country from dangerous thunderstorms to record-breaking heat and a stubborn chill.

A Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall has been issued for parts of the south-central U.S., specifically across southeastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma

A prolonged stretch of stormy weather is expected to affect the south-central United States over the Memorial Day weekend. Strong thunderstorms will likely develop across parts of the central and southern Plains through Monday, bringing threats of large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes.

Central U.S.: A Stormy and Flood-Prone Holiday Weekend

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be the dominant weather feature across much of the central and southern states this weekend, stretching from the Southeast coast and into the Central High Plains. Fueled by an ongoing surge of Gulf moisture, this front will trigger multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms over the Mississippi Valley.

This Saturday morning, expect widespread thunderstorms across southeastern Kansas, northeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.

After a brief midday lull, another round of storms is forecast to redevelop by Saturday evening, with yet another wave possible Sunday into Monday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued Slight Risks (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather each day over these regions. Damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are all on the table.

These repeated rounds will bring a significant risk of flash flooding. River levels may rise rapidly, and flood-prone areas could see considerable impacts through Memorial Day.

Southern U.S.: Heat Wave Takes Hold

While the central U.S. grapples with storms, areas south of the frontal boundary, including Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of the Southeast will experience dangerously hot and dry conditions. Some cities in these states could flirt with or even break daily record highs this weekend.

Highs in the 90s and even low 100s are expected in interior Texas and the Deep South

Humidity levels will push heat index values even higher, increasing the risk for heat-related illnesses. Anyone spending extended time outdoors should take precautions: stay hydrated, seek shade, and avoid strenuous activity during peak afternoon hours.

Meanwhile, in the Northeast, a slow-moving upper-level low will keep skies cloudy and temperatures well below normal through much of the weekend. Saturday looks to be the coolest and wettest day, with scattered rain showers from Upstate New York through all of New England.

Rainfall won’t be heavy, but it will be persistent in places. Highs will run 10 to 20 degrees below average, making it feel more like early April than late May.

By Sunday, the low begins to exit eastward, allowing rain coverage to decrease slightly. Memorial Day should offer some improvement, with milder and drier conditions, though temperatures will remain below seasonal norms.

Much of the Intermountain West and West Coast will enjoy warmer-than-average temperatures and mainly dry conditions. While not immune to localized gusty winds or dry thunderstorms in higher elevations, the holiday weekend should generally cooperate for outdoor activities across California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona.

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