Monsoon Pattern Shift Forecasted for This Week, Bringing Southwest Storminess

Monsoon season officially began on June 15th across the southwestern U.S. Monsoon is a large-scale shift in the weather pattern, which provides much of the region the lion’s share of its annual rainfall totals. A significant shift towards this wetter pattern is forecasted for next week.

Desert Rains
The monsoon pattern brings annual rainfall to the parched landscapes of the Southwest.

The shift from the wetter spring months to the early summers often provides periods of hot and windy weather across the Southwest. Heading into monsoon season 2025, there have been significant swings of temperature across the Southwest.

This has included some extreme heat and abnormally dry periods, resulting in the development of numerous wildfires, with the most significant blazes occurring in southern New Mexico and southwestern Utah. Occasional swings towards more rainy conditions in New Mexico over the past month have aided in containment in that state.

Monsoon Pattern Brings Additional Risks

The monsoon pattern shift brings additional moisture into the region, driving periods of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms. The storms often produce frequent lightning, hail, heavy precipitation, and resultant flash flooding, particularly in previously-parched river basins and narrow canyons. The season tends to ebb and flow, with stormy periods periodically interrupted with bouts of hot and dry weather.

The overall weather pattern is forecasted to shift this week, which could kickstart monsoon season over a much wider area. While this could bring much-needed rain to fire-plagued residents, the stormier weather also comes with additional potential impacts. The after-effects of fire season-namely burn scars and stripped landscapes-have left the ground bare and more susceptible to flash flooding from sudden, intense rainstorms.

Other concerns include lightning strikes from monsoon-driven drier thunderstorms, which could spark new fire concerns. Higher winds not only help spread wildfires, but also drive dust storms. These storms can acutely lower air quality and visibility, resulting in hazardous conditions for all age groups.

The Tropical Influence

The tropics may come into play for this next round of monsoon storminess. As Tropical Storm Flossie slowly marches northwestward along the western Mexico coastline, its moisture could be nabbed by the regional weather pattern. This could help charge monsoon thunderstorms with additional moisture.

Looking ahead, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for July-September across the Southwest shows no favorability towards either above- or below- normal precipitation totals. This does not necessarily mean received precipitation will be spread evenly over this time. With monsoon bouts tending to come in waves, many locations receive their rainfall quite unevenly.

Long term computer models show a likelihood that next week’s pattern shift is the beginning of a rainier period through early August for most of the Southwest. A break in the action is possible for mid to late August, with stormy conditions returning thereafter to round out September.

Utah Wildfires Offered Little Relief

Three significant fires continue to burn across the region: The Forsyth and France Canyon fires in Utah, and the Trout Fire in New Mexico. They have been burning for weeks, and containment has been slow and methodical. The Trout Fire, in fact, is about 83% contained after over two weeks of efforts.

The Forsyth and France Canyon fires are in most need of rainy relief. Unfortunately, the much of the rainy pattern will remain to the south, with only marginal chances of meaningful rainfall. With drier storms and windier conditions possible, the weather may not provide much support overall for containment efforts.

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