Wednesday's Forecast Finds More Than 33 Million People at Risk of Severe Thunderstorms

The country will be divided on Wednesday by a cold front with July-like warmth on one side and significantly cooler air on the other. The front will stretch almost 1500 miles from north to south, running from Michigan to Texas.

    Much of the eastern U.S. will have an unseasonably warm Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures for the Mid-Atlantic, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and Northeast will be between 10 and 15 degrees or more above average. Highs will climb into the 80s all the way through the New England region.

    Much of the east will be in a minor to moderate, levels one and two, out of four, respectively, HeatRisk category today. The hotspot will be in southwestern Texas. This part of the Lone Star State will be in the major to extreme category, levels three and four, out of four, respectively, of HeatRisk.

    In contrast, much cooler conditions for the Rockies, plains, and Southwest. Highs in these regions will be between 5 and 15 degrees below average. The coolest spots in the northern and central Rockies will only reach into the lower to middle 60s for highs today.

    Active Weather Expected Along a Cold Front

    Separating the cooler east from the warmer west is a cold front that stretches from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains. This front will be the focus for strong to severe thunderstorms and potential flooding in the central U.S. Some spots along the front could receive two to four inches of rain by Thursday morning.

    More than 33 million people across portions of at least a dozen states are at a marginal to slight risk, levels one and two out of five, respectively, for severe thunderstorms today into early Thursday morning, according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). The SPC is monitoring a corridor that stretches from north-central Texas all the way through northern lower Michigan.

    The SPC will also be watching parts of the southern Rockies, southern plains, and Southwest, including portions of southern Colorado, western Texas, and much of New Mexico, for the development of severe thunderstorms. A part of eastern New Mexico and western Texas that has been outlined by the SPC for a slight risk has the highest probability of seeing severe thunderstorms. Supercell thunderstorms that might produce a few tornadoes are possible there, but for the rest of the country, in a marginal risk, damaging winds and large hail are the biggest threats.

    Several Million at Risk of Experiencing Flooding

    Over 10 million people in seven states are under flood watches today, and over a million were in flash flood warnings to start the day. The states involved included California, Nevada, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, and Florida. Large swaths of the country could get a soaking today and tonight.

    The Weather Prediction Center has identified three large areas that are at a marginal to slight risk, levels one and two out of four, respectively, for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The four Corners region, eastern Missouri, southern Illinois, and coastal South Carolina have the highest probability for locally heavy rainfall.

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