Will Orlando’s Fourth of July Plans Be Washed Out? What You Need to Know

Orlando’s Fourth of July forecast features warm, humid conditions and scattered storms, with tropical moisture bringing rounds of rain and a nearby system worth watching.

Father carries his young son on his shoulder celebrating the 4th of July with palm trees in view
Tropical moisture is expected to bring repeated rounds of heavy rain and storms to Orlando on the 4th of July, with fireworks shows facing a close call.

Independence Day festivities across Central Florida may face some weather-related hurdles this year. A surge of tropical moisture is expected to bring scattered storms, raising concerns for outdoor events. From parades to fireworks, celebrations could be interrupted by waves of rain and thunderstorms.

Tropical System May Develop Offshore

Adding to the unsettled pattern, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to form off Florida’s east coast by Saturday. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), this disturbance has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression over the next seven days.

The system is expected to drift slowly north or northeast and remain just offshore, though it will continue to enhance moisture over the region.

Even without full tropical development, the presence of this low will help keep rain chances elevated through Saturday. By Sunday, activity should become more scattered, with rain chances decreasing to 60% and temperatures gradually rising into the low 90s into next week.

Unsettled 4th of July Forecast

The weather in Orlando on Friday will feature high humidity and repeated rounds of thunderstorms, with rain chances near 80%. The wettest window looks to fall between 1 p.m. and 8 p.m., when waves of scattered but heavy downpours are expected. A few morning showers may occur, but the afternoon brings the most widespread activity.

Meteored rain map
Scattered storms continue across Central Florida by 5 PM, with locally heavier pockets of rain centered near Orlando and Spring Hill.

Though it won’t be a washout, breaks between storms will be brief. Fireworks shows may be affected, as scattered showers could linger near sunset. However, forecast models show a trend toward lighter activity between 8 and 9 p.m., offering a slim window of opportunity for some evening events.

Rain Totals Add Up Through the Weekend

Orlando and surrounding areas are bracing for 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through the weekend, with higher amounts possible in localized spots. Daily downpours could lead to quick ponding on roads and minor flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas that experience repeat storms.

Meteored precipitation accumulation map
Several areas across Central and South Florida, including Sarasota and Port St. Lucie, are projected to exceed 1 inch of rain by early afternoon on July 4th.

Coastal areas, including Daytona Beach and parts of the Space Coast, may see even more substantial totals. In contrast, areas farther inland may experience more variability depending on storm placement. While no widespread flooding is currently expected, meteorologists are watching for areas where repeated rain bands could create issues.

Whether you're heading to a parade or staking out a spot for fireworks, it's best to keep an umbrella close by.

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